While the election numbers are still going on, current analysis are pro-Netanyahu parties that will be able to assemble at most 59 seats and anti-Netanyahu bloc of 56 seats. At Israel’s 120-seat Knesset, control of the 61 seats is required to select the prime minister and decide who heads of government. A new, more conservative Muslim party – Ra’am – split from the other Arab parties and appeared to have won five seats, according to pre-election results. That would make Ra’am king in deciding which bloc will gain the 61 votes needed to control the government (unless no governing coalition can be formed and an election Other country dispatch is required).
This is a familiar story in PR systems, albeit an unusual illustration of the problem. Parties with small overall support can extract policy concessions and exercise power far beyond their prevailing level of support with the leverage they have, if needed, for larger parties to form coalitions. . Even if the public completely rejects certain policies, governments may be required to adopt them to bring the necessary small parties into government. The best recent review of the PR system, for these reasons, is an excellent book, Responsible parties, by Ian Shapiro and Frances Rosenbluth.
The situation in Israel is still lax. Since Ra’am’s success is unpredictable, it is not clear whether one, both, or both left or right blocs will be willing to join the alliance with Ra’am; What would Ra’am’s position on that would be; And what policies will Ra’am be determined to join a regulatory alliance. The coalition process may also fail, with Israel being forced to hold a fifth election to try to form a government – another PR system that could pose a risk.