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Agree … Gross profit margin bid + 4.6%, most effective GOTV status NV / AZ / FL / NM / NH / MI / NC


Agree … Gross profit margin bid + 4.6%, most effective GOTV status NV / AZ / FL / NM / NH / MI / NC

May 24, 2020, 4:15 pm by Sam Wang

Just a quiet Sunday, restoring some code … minus some issue from 2016.

As of today, survey support for Biden is higher than the 4.6% threshold for the Electoral College mechanism. Average snapshot of current polls: Biden 343, Trump 195 EV.

Today’s poll-based modal results (i.e. single most likely combination):

Here’s what it would look like if only 2% of voters moved from Biden to Trump consistently:

Not really a landslide situation.

As always with the Electoral College, the power of the voter varies widely from state to state. This is the effect of each voter on the outcome of the President. In these units my “jerseyvote” is worth about 0.5.

This valuation is key to our mission of 2020, which is to help readers focus their efforts on where they’ll be most effective. In the coming weeks, we will expand pricing from the previous focus (President, Senate, and House of Representatives) to include state-level races, including legislative ones. These last races are particularly important, as redistribution will take place in 2021 – and redraw the political playing field for a decade.

Card: Elections in 2020 · chairman

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