Home Elections Before conventions, a race is a bit narrow

Before conventions, a race is a bit narrow


Can events like the attendance call change public opinion? We’re going to find out – and the trends last month will make a congress easy to see, as Democrats are on a slight downward trend.

Our federal poll trackers use different data streams, but they appear to be moving together. This also happened in 2016. Democrats still lead the positions of President, Senate and House of Representatives. But in any case, the race has narrowed 2-3 percentage points.

As always, the common metric for all three trackers is Meta-Margin, which is defined as how much a poll amplitude will have to change across the board to perfect partisan control: Sum with 270 electoral votes, the 50 D + I Senate, and 218 seats.

Here is the President tracker:

Biden reached its peak at the end of June, with a meta lead of 7.2 percentage points. He leads the way in national polls over 9 points. So one advantage of the Republicans in the Electoral College is that two points are still there, similar to 2016.

Today, the Meta-margin is Biden + 5.1%, down 2.1 percentage points. This also matches the movement in Trump’s job approval rating as calculated by FiveThirtyEight, which has also shifted towards Trump in the past few weeks after reaching extremes last month.

Comparing the presidential spread to the upper house spread, which shows the race narrowed 2.4 percentage points, from as high as D + 6.0% to D + 3.6% today. .

Finally, the general Congress vote, corrected for structural deviations including gerrymandering, narrowed from D + 7.0% to D + 3.3%. This measure fluctuates more and if smoothed, changes it like 3 percentage points.

What does all this mean? Well, there is a possibility of differential response bias – the idea that voters favor Democrats and Republicans responding to surveys with different possibilities, and that likelihood varies slightly. by the time. That has been suggested before.

Another possibility, which I tend to support, is the idea that these surveys measure real change in attitudes. I think Biden’s lead meta will continue to decline, at least for the next few days. Then we can see the results (if any) coming from this week’s conference.

To be clear, this is a small movement. Identifying two consistent change points requires significant computation and is more a technical achievement than a change. Perhaps the race’s natural breakout lies in the middle of this rather narrow range.

But if this analysis gives you a headache, that’s great! Now find a race in your state or home region and make a difference there. See PEC 50-State Instructions to focus your efforts.

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