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Counting, conflicts and consequences


Based on traffic statistics, most of you have arrived in the last few days. We’re living in some of the possible events that I suggested in September. vote-by-mail ballots this year are different. They are taking a while to count in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Second, given the Trump Administration’s attitude toward the law, the problem is who is in charge of running the election, especially Pennsylvania.

It appears to be a full tally of the ballots (for example, if mail ballots are not delayed; hello, Louis DeJoy!) would lead to WI / MI / PA for Biden, GA going up and eventually 291 to 307 electoral votes for Biden (or less, if Trump won in Maine’s 2nd Congressional District).

I think about three things today: (a) the voting rules are very important for the President – and the Senate, in Georgia and Maine; (b) the polarization took place in Senate races, and (c) the electoral reform achieved great success last night.

In addition, the question of large voting error cannot be avoided. It’s hard to say until all the votes have been checked, but this error seems to be at least as big as the 2016 error of 3 percentage points. That gives consistent results with the PEC Trump + 3% map, shows that the regime of 309 electoral votes. In Florida and Texas, the voting error seems to be larger, 4-6 percentage points. That is huge.

I don’t know why. One possibility is that Hispanics are assimilated to other whites in identifying yourself. If they voted like their white neighbors in both Florida and New York, they would vote differently there and would need to be sampled accordingly. However, I have to say that it is starting to get tedious finding out which voting error is made in every consecutive election.

Anyway, you got why I listed all the results in the banner as Meta-Margin, among other things determining how big of a probe error would have to be in order to make a full kick. good. I think 5.3% is pretty big, but if the voting error is at Florida level everywhere then more work to be done.

One huge, real-world result for 2021 is the Senate. Montana, North Carolina and Iowa are Republicans. It’s the same as 2016: every state goes the same way with both the President and the Senate. Polarization wins again. There are 48 seats for the Democratic Party. It can still debut at 50 seats, last of the range mentioned before. But it depends a lot on the irregular voting rules in Georgia and Maine.

Note: Counting of votes has not been conducted in North Carolina until November 12. There are procedures such as votes happenning.

In Georgia, if a candidate does not initially get 50% of the vote, there will be an election to vote on January 5, 2021 – the day before a new Congress comes in. The open chair would lead to such a vote between Pastor Raphael Warnock (D) versus Senator Kelly Loeffler (R-inc.). Warnock led Loeffler in head-to-head surveys with 4-14 points. (Note that the voting error in Georgia seems to be quite small this year.) However, the turnout is likely to drop because Loeffler has time to consolidate the Republican vote, Warnock is still having trouble. That is the fundamental difference between a two-level primary system and an instantaneous rated / selectable flow-feed system.

(But if you have not yet registered to vote, you can do so online!)

The race to another Georgia Senate may also come to an end, although there is still a chance that Senator David Perdue (R) will cross the 50% threshold. We should find out soon. The flow eliminates a liberal candidate, which is not good for Jon Ossoff’s (D) chance.

In Maine, Sen. Susan Collins (R-inc.) Led Sara Gideon (D) to date. However, she can drop below the 50% threshold. In that case, they have rated selective votes. (Here at the Electoral Innovation Laboratory, We worked on a recent court case resolves the constitutionality of ranked option voting in Maine.) If the independent Lisa Savage makes progressively more votes than the difference between Collins and Gideon, then Gideon still has a good chance of winning. – if enough Savage supporters choose her as second or third choice.

All of this shows how important the rules of democracy are. We were forced to live with the Electoral College, where a convincing popular victory could be overwhelmed by the uniqueness of the rotating states. And the Senate population distortion, as well as the individual state rules, have huge consequences.

Whatever happens in these races, the picture of electoral reform over the next few years will get a lot worse. National reform must pass the Senate, which currently needs 60 votes to change the law. Democrats probably need 55 votes to lower that threshold, who knows, maybe they can make a more modest rule. Such a change will be needed to pass the new Voting Rights Act. Also, if they can’t even get 50 votes, then I have no doubts that Biden’s judicial appointments face an extremely difficult path in 2021.

Finally, there is the question of the year 2022. Democrats seem likely to lose seats then, taking them below 50 seats. So, at most, they have two years to accomplish anything.

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I haven’t even covered the subject of state legislatures and voting initiatives. There, my hard-working team at Princeton was deeply involved. For that, and for its importance, I will write about that story in a separate post. The picture is not that bad … but it is very similar to a story about the green state, the red state.

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