Home Business News Energy transitions pose political conflict in oil-producing states: Reuters report

Energy transitions pose political conflict in oil-producing states: Reuters report


© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A woman walks through a pipe that runs through Ogoniland in Rivers State

By Noah Browning

LONDON (Reuters) – The transition to green energy drives oil-producing nations lagged in diversifying their economies, UK-based risk consulting firm Maplecroft, Verisk (NASDAQ 🙂 Maplecroft warned in a report on Thursday.

“Algeria, Iraq and Nigeria will be among the first casualties of a wave of slow-moving political turmoil that will engulf a host of oil-producing countries within the next three to 20 years as the transition energy shifts. quantity takes place “.

Other countries facing the greatest risk include Angola, Gabon and Kazakhstan, it added.

“With the transition away from fossil fuels accelerating and COVID-19 leveling up any oil gains in recent years … time is running out for some countries that don’t diversify. their economy in the export of fossil fuels. “

IMAGE: Stagnant Nations – https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/qmypmrqybvr/goodbadugly.PNG

Verisk Maplecroft says mid-century oil price outlooks are uncertain and could lie in a wide range anywhere between $ 48 and $ 95 a barrel. is currently trading at around 63 USD / barrel.

The US Energy Information Administration put forward an even wider spread, predicting that in the annual energy outlook last month, the price of oil in 2050 would be between 48 USD and 173 USD / barrel.

While the Gulf Arabs’ low cost oil producers are best placed to capture market share, they will inevitably experience shocks in the future: prolonged price cuts may come into play, the report said. foreign exchange reserves and domestic spending, undermining stability, the report said.

IMAGE: Net oil exporters will need adjustments – https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/yxmpjwqynvr/adjust.PNG

“Even diversification can come with political risk by challenging social contracts between the traditional oil and gas state,” said James Lockhart Smith, head of market risk at Verisk Maplecroft. : legitimacy to rule in exchange for hydrocarbon growth.

Most oil-producing countries have been unable to diversify from oil, and some have become even more dependent since oil prices fell in 2014, with Norway and Qatar, the report added. is one of the humble success stories.

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