Today is the last day of the voting. In normal years, we call it Election Day. This year, that is the start of the vote count.
Thanks to all the early voting, the polling stations are generally not busy. If you haven’t, go to vote! Text MYVOTE to 977-79 to find your polling place.
Here are some resources for tonight:
For now, use it as the main PEC comment topic.
Race specifics and final snapshot after jump.
Chairman: Based on polls, the single combination is more likely to result in a total electoral votes Biden 351, Trump 187. That includes the designation of Georgia, just Biden + 1%. Biden’s Meta-Margin is + 5.3%.
If Biden exceeds 3 percentage points, his average expectation will receive up to 395 electoral votes. If he is less than 3 points, he will receive 309 electoral votes. View of us summary map at 270ToWin.
Likely to know who tonight is who is likely to win in the four early reporting states. Biden seems to be leading the way out of all four. They will give us a feel for the overall accuracy of this year’s polls.
New Hampshire (Biden up 8% in polls), Florida (+ 3%), North Carolina (+ 3%), Georgia (+ 1%). To have a chance of winning, Trump must win against Florida, North Carolina, and Georgia. If he lost to any of them, Biden’s victory was almost certain.
We may not have heard of Pennsylvania (Biden + 5%) tonight because of delays in counting votes sent by mail, starting today.
Senate: If everyone who took the lead in the polls won, we would have 54 Democrats, 46 Republicans. From a probability point of view, some margin is close enough for the mean result to be 53 Democrats, 47 Republicans.
However, 8 races to the Senate have average poll profit 3 points or less, for a range 50 to 57 seats of the Democratic Party.
House: The House of Representatives will remain Democrats, with the ability to win between 0-15 seats.
State legislature: There is a lot of change in partisan control. Some of these are highlighted in our Redistricting Moneyball feature. Overall, there is a possibility that up to 100 seats of Congress are under bipartisan control – almost a quarter of the entire room. Geek’s guide provides more details.
More detail after the evening continues. I will blog directly and hope to attract members of the PEC team. Our Electoral Innovation Lab has grown and we have lots of people ready to take part!
Going to dinner …