The end result: Warnock (D) and Ossoff (D) win, giving Democrats 50 seats in the Senate and control of the room. (THE CURRENT)
In Georgia, Joe Biden first defeated Donald Trump. We now have two contests for the Senate. Polls show Democrats, Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock, a few points ahead of their opponents. If they do win (and even if they just get close), they can thank the early voting – and trends could make 2020 for Georgia the same as 2008 for Virginia.
First, let’s see the data. Unlike the rest of the country, Georgia general elections have gone pretty well. At the end of October, pre-election polls showed Biden average of 49% and Trump of 48% (11 polls, 1.0 +/- 1.1 amplitude, average + / – SEM estimated). The results were Biden 49.5%, Trump 49.3%. Trump does better than Biden, which shows some signs that undecided or third-party backers have broken for Trump. In any case, the number of votes should not exceed one point.
In the regular Senate race, Ossoff and Sen. David Perdue (R) are having 47 points per person (n = 8, Ossoff returns +1.0 +/- 1.0). The result is 47.9, Perdue 49.7. So Perdue outperformed 2 or 3 points.
Now, the final week of the balance sheet poll shows the lead for both Democrats: Ossoff 50%, Perdue 47% (n = 8, average margin of Ossoff +3.0 +/- 1.3%) and Warnock 49%, Senator Kelly Loeffler (R) 47% (n = 8, median margin of Warnock +1.0 +/- 0.8%). There were a few undeclared voters: 3% in the Ossoff-Perdue race and 4% in the Warnock-Loeffler race. Ossoff is at a critical 50% and Warnock is in that range. So, at a minimum, both take very good shots to win.
With a race like this, it will all depend on whether Republicans can give their ballot today. President Trump’s false accusations of fraud and lack of focus on Senate races appear to be of no help to their side. Then again, the Georgia Republican was very good at foreign elections.
(Note that we may not know the outcome of tonight’s election. Biden was not declared a winner in Georgia until Friday, November 6.)
The Democrats’ lead opened up a few points starting in mid-December, which coincided with early voting. As Charles Stewart at MIT pointed out, early voting and mail voting were conducted at high speed. Indeed, it looks like 91% great November’s voters will vote in the outflow. Compare that to 56% or 57% of Georgia’s past passes.
These are early and absentee voting statistics for GA, as of yesterday. pic.twitter.com/VlTxRAlxBN
– Charles Stewart III (@cstewartiii) January 1, 2021
Georgia voters know the results of their ballots. With at least 50 Republicans and 48 Democrats in the Senate by 2021, these two races will decide whether Republicans will maintain control or whether Democrats can reach billions. draw 50-50, thereby gaining control.
In another voter-motivating factor, more than 200,000 voters voted, who did not vote in November. That was made possible by a consensus decree denying state law. Flow voter requirements must register and vote in the general election. Stacey Abrams and her organization, Fair Fight Action, as well as other Georgia organizations, made the most of this consent decree.
Can such an approach be taken in other states? It will have to be adjusted to suit the specific state. Florida, for example, requires organizations to register with the state, which makes mobilizing more difficult. On the other hand, Florida has a voter initiative mechanism that can change that rule or implement other rules.
Finally, I wonder if Georgia was going in the same direction as Virginia a decade ago. The growth in the Virginia suburbs has placed that state firmly on the Democratic milestone. However, in 2008, Obama won almost no position. In Georgia, the demographic trend is towards the majority being non-white by 2033. You can explore this by using data feature in Journal of Atlanta-Constitution (The map works in Microsoft Edge, but is corrupted in Chrome).
The Georgia Republican Party will certainly try to prevent the effects of the demographic change in the next battle: 2021 regional redistricting. Republicans control the governor, the legislature and the Courts supreme state. Activists do not fairly discriminate that have a number of tools available to them, primarily public opinion and media scrutiny. Over time, the legislature has held public hearings and pledged to support interested communities. If they do so again in 2021, citizens can find their voice using tools like Representative.org. To read more about the possibilities or participation, see The Princeton Gerrymandering Project.