Home Elections It's alive! Track 2020 election, Part 3: Term of President

It’s alive! Track 2020 election, Part 3: Term of President


It’s alive! Track 2020 election, Part 3: Term of President

June 19, 2020, 6:46 am by Sam Wang



Detailed explanation comes. It’s basically like the 2016 computation – a simple snapshot of the polls to give a sharp picture of where the race takes place on any given day, to enable optimization of the race. resource allocation.

The November prediction (red, one-sigma zone; yellow zone, two-sigma zone, or 95% confidence band) comes from estimating the possible difference between now and Election Day. The big change is to put a higher floor in the minimum degree of uncertainty in the building. Raising the floor (by 2 percentage points) prevents excessive trust in the home area, while maintaining the clear time resolution we receive every day from now until then.

Most of the details are here. and older article. There will be more explanation.

Contributors to this feature: Lucas Manning, Ben Deverett. Residential code https://github.com/Princeton-Election-Consortium/data-backend. Output result: tables and chart.

Card: Elections in 2020 · chairman · Website news

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