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Moneyball Redistribution: Nebraska!


Moneyball Redistribution: Nebraska!

October 23, 2020, 8:59 am by Sam Wang

We have an unexpected new Redistributive Moneyball status: Nebraska!

The Nebraska legislature will influence the redrawing of areas of Congress, which is important for the House of Representatives and the President as well. How did we figure it out, and how can you help in the final days of the campaign?

Nebraska analysis is more difficult than other states. The legislature (only one, called “unicameral”) is nominally nonpartisan. However, we have found a way to make it work.

Members of the small house, called senators, are nominally nonpartisan. However, nearly all of them are affiliated with either the Democratic Party or the Republican Party. It is a powerful Republican agency. But like the US Senate (anyway now), it takes two-thirds of the vote to advance the legislation. Right now Democrats have enough votes to force the bipartisan to compromise – and it looks like they have a good chance of keeping things that way.

To find this out, we must first identify the affiliated parties. Then, using the district’s ratings, we estimate the probability of bipartisan party retention at 83%. Since we define the 15% to 85% range as an uncertain area, Nebraska is therefore a Moneyball status.

Partisan opposition can be held whenever there are at least three counties – and that’s the size of Nebraska’s Congressional delegation. The second Congress district, which includes Omaha, is now a revolving district. Indeed, it could have voted for Biden more than Trump this year. That is very important because Nebraska awards its electorate by district parliament. So keeping District 2 competitive has consequences for both Congress and the White House.

Nebraska has now been added to the list of Moneyball states. You can find the top Nebraska candidates in the list of candidates for ActBlue. And as always, the other Moneyball states where the Republican Party wins can yield the bipartisan listed in the WinRed link.

Card: Redistribution

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