Home Elections More equitable November delimitation for a quarter of all Lower House regions?

More equitable November delimitation for a quarter of all Lower House regions?


Wherever you are, there are many reasons to vote. We have resources in the right bar. See Guidelines for 50-state PEC voters. Also at other sites, see Taniel’s What’s on the ballot? and Stephen Colbert’s Know more than one ballot.

Today, I have a summary of all the ways you can make a difference in the redistribution of equity in nine states: Virginia, Ohio, North Carolina, Kansas, Texas, Missouri, Nebraska, Minnesota and Connecticut. Combined, these states are hope There are a total of 106 seats in the House of Representatives, nearly a quarter of the seats. And you can absolutely help, even if you don’t live in one of those states.

Voting measures

A number of measures failed to vote, in large part due to court hoaxes in Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Oregon. But there are still two big questions affecting the redistricting efforts in Virginia and Missouri.

Virginia (11 seats of House of Representatives): Amendment 1. The constitutional amendment was ultimately endorsed by Virginia voters. It’s not perfect, but it’s a serious improvement over the total control of their counties by lawmakers. An overview of the Princeton Gerrymandering Project on its terms is here. To get to the ballot, the first amendment had to go through the General Assembly twice: first by Republicans fearing losing control of the redistribution process, second by a mixture of Communists. draw (currently in the minority) and some Democrats are willing. to relinquish some of their own powers. If it does pass, still need to facilitate the law to give it some extra teeth. Vote against gerrymandering: YES.

Missouri (8th House of Representatives): Amendment 3, “Dirty Missouri.” In 2018, voters approved an amendment, “Missouri clean.” Clean Missouri created a state demographic to work on the first draft of a redistribution map, and set quantitative limits on the partisan bias of that map. This year, lawmakers introduced a new amendment to the ballot that featured minor electoral reforms – and removed demographic and quantitative restrictions. Vote against gerrymandering: NO.

Judicial election

Ohio (15 seats of the House of Representatives): two races into the state Supreme Court. The state’s supreme court will hear any challenge under the state constitution’s new Fair Zones provisions. Ohio judicial elections are nominally nonpartisan, but the loyalty of the judges is known. It currently consists of 5 Republicans, 2 Democrats. Two of the Republican seats go to the election, leading to a possible 4-3 split (in both directions). The Democratic challengers were Jennifer Brunner and John P. O’Donnell; Brunner has to be specific against gerrymandering. Over the past 10 years, races into the state’s Supreme Court have averaged several points more than Democrats than the top – but with a wide range (standard deviation = 17 points).

Breaking one-party control over the legislature

North Carolina (14 seats in the House of Representatives), Kansas (4 seats), Nebraska (3 seats) and Texas (39 seats). In all three states, one-party control of regional redistricting is on the verge of being broken if Democrats gain an interest. “Cusp” means the probability it happens is 15-85%, based on Moneyball redistribution project.

In North Carolina, Democrats are taking control of the House or Senate a few seats, thanks in part to the state Supreme Court redrawing the map in 2019. That map. as the Senate Competition is much more competitive but leaves some partisan injustice in the Home map.

In Kansas, a Republican majority in the House of Representatives could be broken if the Democrats won a single seat. This gives them a voice in redistribution. And in Texas, Democrats need to win nine seats in the House of Representatives to gain control – and have a say in the redistribution of Congress. (Thanks to a change to the Texas redistricting law, Democrats probably won’t have a say in mapping out the state’s legislative lines, no matter what.)

The same is true in Nebraska. Nebraska is a more difficult state to analyze because the candidates are not nominally partisan. However, we did review it. Our analysis shows that Democrats are relatively able – but not sure – to maintain enough seats to prevent Republicans from gaining a majority. The closest races in Unicameral (which is how their legislature) are in Districts 3, 15, 31, 35 and 45 of the Senate. Of these, the open seats – the ones that make the most sense – are in Districts 31 and 45.

Minnesota (7 seats in the House of Representatives) and Connecticut (5 seats). In these two states, the situation is turned upside down compared to North Carolina / Kansas / Texas: they are likely to be under the control of a single party by the Democrats. Modest Republicans’ interests in both states would reinforce the problem. In Minnesota, Republicans controlled the state Senate. In the Moneyball Redistricting calculation it shows that the room is on one side of almost perfect knife. The top two counties for voter power are SD-58 (larger Saint Paul area; incumbent D) and SD-14 (St. Cloud; R incumbent).

In Connecticut, the Republicans had a brilliant shot at disrupting the Democratic majority and forced a bipartisan mapping process.

Not Florida (29 seats of the House of Representatives). When we initially made our Moneyball Redistribution calculations, it appeared that the Democrats made an outside attempt to regain control of the House of Representatives. But that goal seems out of reach. The Senate can take 21 seats for Republicans, 19 seats for Democrats. One more person will do it – but thanks to poor recruitment of candidates and an disorganized state party, the Democrats don’t seem to have come up with enough games.

If you want to influence the above questions, links are provided under ActBlue and WinRed link in sidebar.

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