(See our explainer video here.)
The main story of the 2020 election campaign is the presidential election and the fight for control of Congress (mainly the US Senate). But hidden underneath those outstanding questions are state legislative elections that will set the political playing field, including Congress, over the next 10 years.
The state legislatures define policies that will affect millions of Americans. Also, this year they decide who will draw maps of the legislative districts of Congress and the US state after the 2020 Census. Their range will last for a decade, unlike presidential term (4 years) and Senate seat (6 years).
The Princeton Electoral Association designed a model for identifying races where voters have the highest leverage to prevent partisan criticism by 2021. A few hundred voters are mobilized in the appropriate counties could bring bipartisan control over redistribution and fairer counties for a decade. Our findings are in PEC Moneyball map. (We’ll then add other major state races, including questions about the U.S. Senate and states’ ballot papers.)
Our calculations will help you guide your efforts as you decide where to get your votes and where to donate. At the state and county level, you can take advantage of our using calculations PEC Act 2020 (for Democrats) and Winning PEC 2020 (for Republicans).
In this post, we describe the method used to determine the redistribution of voters’ power for state legislative elections. You can also find a more detailed version for election-math enthusiasts here.
We followed a four-step process:
Step 1: In each state, determining which 2020 election results will give neither party the authority to issue a party leader. This is determined by the redistribution protocol specified in the state constitution. In many states, the two divisions of the state legislature will draw new counties, the governor can veto the plan, and the state legislature can override the veto with a super majority. Therefore, a state would have bipartisan redistribution as long as (1) one party does not control governor and both chambers of the state legislature and (2) one party does not have a supermajority in both. room of the state legislature. Some states do not have a veto of the governor (eg, NC), and we adjust the desired election results accordingly. We assume that states with independent redistricting committees (eg, AZ) will not issue partisan chiefs. We focused on congressional criticism, not state legislation, but it turns out that many highly leveraged states have similar laws for the two processes.
Step 2: In each state, determine the likelihood of an election outcome that results in bipartisan control over redistribution. This is not so easy; most national election forecasts are based primarily on polls, but this data is not available for race entry into the state legislature. Furthermore, each state has dozens or hundreds of small counties, each with its own different candidates and uncertain local dynamics. For this reason, we rely mainly on the race’s ratings Hemodialysis, the only institution to provide comprehensive ratings for individual state legislature races. Groups, led by Chaz Nuttycombe, review statewide election results in each county, adjust the effect of incumbent popularity, study challengers to gauge their quality, review the war’s financial reports translation and demographic trend prediction.
Our state legislature election model takes hemodialysis race ratings, including one side of favor and a confidence level of “Not tested”, “Safe”, “Tilt “Or” Bounce “(no party support for Toss-Up). Then we combined the results from the recent state legislature and President elections, with a slight split of districts with the same ratings. Next, we model the uncertainty in the outcome of each race, taking into account the likelihood of uniform variation across states or between urban / suburban / rural voters. Putting all of this together, we can calculate the probability that state legislature elections result in bipartisan control over redistricting.
Step 3: In each county in a state, find the amount by which a new vote affects the probability of bipartisan control. We go through each district and run the model from step 2 after adding one to the projected number of votes for a given party. The change in probability provides an estimate of the chance that a given voter in the district will vote the outcome for bipartisan redistribution.
Step 4: Quantify effects on different states. Partisan opposition has more impact in more populous states, as it affects more seats in the US Congress. We estimate that these effects are proportional to the number of parliamentary areas minus one, so we multiply the voter authority from step 3 by this number (based on Expected Census results 2020). After normalizing to a 0-100 scale, we get a roster of relative powers of voters redistributed to prevent partisan opposition.
Frequently asked questions
Q: If I want to raise money to prevent gerrymandering, which candidate should I donate?
A: This model tells us where votes, not donations, have the highest leverage. These do not have to be the same. There is evidence to suggest that political advertising is primarily useful for getting people to notice a candidate, which causes More effective for first time candidate than famous incumbents. Additionally, a dollar goes further in the low-cost media market and is more important to poorly funded candidates than well-funded candidates. We do not offer specific recommendations, although we hope interested citizens can use our results in conjunction with other available information to inform key engagement. value by 2020.
In some cases, the counties have an unusually high concentration of key districts. Examples include Johnson County, Kansas and Tarrant County, Texas. At the state and county level, you can take advantage of our using calculations PEC Act 2020 (for Democrats) and Winning PEC 2020 (for Republicans).
Q: Why don’t Toss-Up seats always have the highest voter power in a state?
A: Indeed, the Toss-Up chairs are the most likely to be voted on on Election Day. However, if one party had priority over control of the state legislature, the other would have to do better than expected to gain control. This means they will likely have to win over most or all of the Toss-Up seats in order to compete in the chamber. If a county is part of most paths of a party’s redistribution of power, it is not a highly leveraged county. We are not trying to determine the counties that are most likely to be nearest, but the counties that are most likely to be the cut-off points for our desired election results.
Q: How often will you update this page?
A: Every time CNallysis updates their state legislative ratings, we will run the model again. They update about once a month. We could run the model once a week or biweekly between CNallysis updates, although changes are likely to be minor.
Who did the job: Legislative models of Moneyball state, Jacob Wachspress and Connor Moffatt. Interactive map, Hope Johnson. Webmaster, Mike Hallee and Indraneel Purohit.