Home Stock Strategist: Don't be surprised to see double-digit growth in retail sales

Strategist: Don’t be surprised to see double-digit growth in retail sales


According to a fund manager’s strategist, retail sales in March in the US could have grown by double digits, thanks to $ 1,400 stimulus checks distributed by the federal government, according to the strategy. of a fund manager.

The forecast by Jeffrey Schulze, investment strategist at ClearBridge Investments, comes before the Commerce Department releases the data on Thursday. Economists polled by Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal predict a 6.1% increase.

Schulze points out that $ 600 of checks received in December boosted January’s retail sales by 8%. “This stimulus package is 2.5 times that size,” he said.

He said the United States will achieve herd immunity by the second quarter. “And when the herd immunity is reached, it will create a tsunami in consumer spending,” he said.

Investing FactSet / ClearBridge

Stock valuations are not stretched, he argued. “If anything, analysts are expecting too little income growth in 2021 and 2022. Analysts have been behind this curve in Q2, 3 and 4 of 2020,” he said. , and he hopes for further earnings adjustments.

That said, he points out that the market is usually volatile for the second year after the market falls low. If the yield exceeds 10 years
BX: TMUBMUSD10Y

That could cause a market turmoil as well.

S&P 500
SPX,
-0.41%

modestly higher on Wednesday, after finishing Tuesday at a 2021 record high.

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