Judging from my correspondence, I think some of you think I’ve gone back online to make predictions. This is not true!
PEC provides aggregation and information to reveal where you can make the most impact. Since the very beginning, my reason for running the PEC is to show how those efforts can be optimized. And as I wrote in 2016I did not estimate any probability this year – that’s why there are only Meta-Margins above. If you want probability, I think FiveThirtyEight does a productive job. That, now you know I’m serious!
Now… where to put it – House, Senate, or governor? Look at current conditions.
Senate. The Democrats’ control over the Senate is somewhat unfavorable, but there is uncertainty. This is not meant to be polled. Have a lot of. Six races are currently showing poll averages within 3 points in both directions. Since the election results can systematically deviate from opinion polls by up to 4 points (i.e. all polls could be wrong in the same direction), either the Democrat or the party The Republic can envision all of these races. That is still between 45 and 51 Democrats / Independence seats!
Based on past elections, it is not a bell curve; The end points of the range are quite probable. So the Republican retention is uncertain. Add to the possibility of a 50-50 split (power-sharing) and the fact that this year’s election sets the stage for 2020, and there are many reasons to be interested in this year’s Senate races. .
Therefore, six closely related races deserve support: AZ, FL, IN, MO, NV and TN.
House. Here I list three streams of evidence. FiveThirtyEight put them together, but I think it’s valuable in testing them separately. It all points towards a Democratic takeover, but nothing is definitive.
Joint vote of the National Assembly. The PEC’s Meta margins are determined purely based on the general polls of Congress. Under this measure, the House of Representatives was 0 to 4 percentage points higher than the Democratic control threshold (threshold = 6% amplitude in the national popular vote, i.e. polls show billions). popular vote win rate is from 6-10%). Blue band above beta page displays a 90% confidence range on this gauge.
Special election. These are of predictive value and suggest that the Democrats are 3 percentage points higher than the threshold for a takeover. The pink band shows the 90% uncertainty band.
Expert reviews. Rate as Cook Political Report seemingly uses district-level polls, candidate funding and quality. If one occupies solid / capable / tilted Democrats seats and an additional half of the seats are rolled out, one will get an average of 224 Democrats – a handful over 218. seats are needed for the majority. If one sees the bounce as a flip coin, the 90% confidence interval is 215-233 Democratic seats. That is not shown on the graph.
In short, while a convincing universal suffrage is almost certain, the question of control remains. The basic reason is gerrymandering, which I estimate gives Republicans a 3 point bonus.
Based on all of this, one could certainly favor close Home races. But which ones? There are dozens of them across the country.
One effective move would be to volunteer in a county near you (with your help Competitive county finder), and donations in selected races. For example, a person may race for the House of Representatives that is in a state of having a tight Senate race. That means District 3 Nevada, District 1 of Arizona or Districts 15, 26, and 27. All are listed under ActBlue on the left (along with most Senate races). On the Republican side, one can give Republican Campaign Committee.
Governor. In some states, a change in the governing regime will lead to the government control of divided parties. This is important; Democrats are notoriously bad at focusing on state and local races. The closest major race is in Wisconsin, where Tony Evers (D) is able to beat Scott Walker (R). The Supreme Court did not end Wisconsin’s famous chieftain earlier this year. A prospective Governor Evers will take office in 2021 to redistrict and ensure that violations will not repeat.