As I wrote the other day, federalism itself is in this year’s ballot. Two notable events today with the Supreme Court prove that point – and underline the importance of your active action in shaping which path the nation should take.
First, Amy Coney Barrett is sworn in to justice on the ninth, eight days before Election Day. There is no doubt that she will participate in the Court’s active stance to cut voting rights – to promptly help the President who appointed her.
The second event is an example of such an approach. In a 5-3 vote, the Court passed a lower court, which would permit the calculation of postal ballots on Election Day if received by a certain later date. . In a footnote, Justice Kavanaugh took it radical step cites Bush v. Gore, which until now is still considered a third rails, even with judges on the right flank of the Court. (Indeed, Chief Justice Roberts had trouble separating himself from the footnote.) Basically, Kavanaugh said (to himself, not the entire majority) that the Supreme Court could override State courts in the interpretation of state election laws.
This is a huge overshoot of the black literacy law. If adopted by a majority, it would reshape a fundamental principle of the US government system, namely dual sovereignty between state and federal law. That’s a big deal.
However, something could change the situation in 2021 and you may be affected.
Today I focus on Georgia.
Georgia has two Senate seats to run for: regular race, Ossoff (D) vs. Perdue (R); and a special election of many candidates including Warnock (D), Collins (R), Loeffler (R) and others. The races are quite close together. The special election is sure to go to a January flow. If both Ossoff and Perdue are unable to reach 50% (possibly, there is a third-party candidate), that will also go to a flow. In ours Senate power rankings, Georgia voters scored 24 overall for both races, leaving them tied for fifth place with nearby South Carolina.
What does this have to do with the Supreme Court? Court reform.
Next year will be a difficult year for the passage of any law under the existing rules, including the legislative mechanism. The Legislature required 60 votes out of 100 to end the argument. For the past 20 years, the movie has been used more and more as a regular activity. By 2021, health care, coronavirus reduction, voting rights and judicial reform will be canceled on arrival in the Senate – if the record is on hold.
Some Democrats do not want to undermine the opposition. As a result, their party will need a substantial 50+ votes to change the rules. For that reason, every seat in the Senate matters. This is why in the PEC power rankings, we delegate power to Senate races not on the control of the room, but on the ability of individual races to win. . (Note that our power ratings are symmetrical, in the sense that they apply equally if you’re a Republican or Democratic voter. The leverage per vote is the same.)
Based on current polls, six Senate races fall in about 3 points or less: Georgia, Iowa, South Carolina, Montana and Alaska. The result range will be anywhere from 50 Democrats to 56 Democrats. It is a series of futures for the Senate, from the Vice President having to hang around a lot to break ties, to a board of six votes to do various things – including changing the filter rules.
Hence the Georgian vote was very strong. Even if there is a voting election, it is highly recommended that you vote in this election, whether by mail, early or on November 3rd. The reason is that only people vote in the first election. New players are allowed to vote in the January poll.
In addition, if you have problems with your mailed ballot, there is a “cure” process to fix your ballot. Make sure to use mechanisms like this to correct any problems with your ballot. In the end, if all else fails… vote November 3 in person!
Everyone else, work in your state. Donating money can be helpful if you go for today or tomorrow – they will be in time for last minute efforts. We have positioned the highest leveraged opportunities on the left bar in the links to ActBlue (for Democrats) and WinRed (for Republicans).