Home Elections The slow train (shutter) is coming

The slow train (shutter) is coming


In the surveys conducted October 1 through 4, surveys showed a 10.0 +/- 0.6 percentage point increase in bids (7 surveys, median +/- estimated SEM). If maintained, that is a larger margin than 2008 Obama (7.3 points) or Clinton 1996 (8.5 points. The most recent bigger winner was Reagan 1984 (18.2 points).

On the other hand, the presidential margin is currently only Biden + 5.5%. It’s based on state polls, not as new as national polls. The typical distance between the Meta-Margin and the national margin is 2-3 points, which is a measure of Trump’s advantage in the Electoral College. If this is maintained, when the state polls catch up, we can expect Meta-Margin to hit Biden + 7% or + 8%.

What will be the impact of slowing down? The consequences could affect five Senate races, six state legislatures and the redistribution of more than 90 House seats in a decade.

Races to the Senate tend to move in the same direction. In the chart above, the Super Margin for the Senate and the President is closely correlated (r = + 0.86). Anything that motivates one, also drives the other. (Each point is a date and the ramp is with consecutive days.)

What could these possible reasons be? One obvious reason is that direct ticket voting is on the rise. As we become more polarized, the taste of partying overwhelms other considerations.

Another possibility is the unresponsive bias, meaning that from week to week polls have time to reach voters with a bit easier or harder. Although this has been investigated, I don’t think anyone can confidently say that non-reactive bias is the only cause of ups and downs – or whether sometimes a change is there. real.

Whatever the underlying cause of this relationship is, it’s likely we’ll see some change in Senate races in the coming weeks. Senate polls are updated less often than the President’s polls at the state level, and so it will take some time to catch up. I expect the Senate polls overall to tilt Democrats by about 2 points in the coming weeks (unless, of course, the presidential races pull away from the Biden).

Present, Senate races displays probes within 1 percentage point in one of two directions: Alaska, Kansas, Iowa, South Carolina and Georgia. If Trump’s decline affects those races, it will have a huge impact. Losing all five races, the Democrats are likely to win 50 seats. With them, the Democrats can get 55 seats. That makes a big legal difference in 2021 – and maintains control by 2023.

There are similar consequences for redistricting. A few percentage points can affect one-party versus bipartisan control over redistricting in half a dozen state legislatures (see our chart). Moneyball redistribution characteristic). Those states (TX, NC, FL, KS, MN, CT) will withdraw about 93 seats of the National Assembly, more than a fifth of the seats. The impacts will last for a decade.

You can make a difference in these races by including the ActBlue and WinRed links in the sidebar. In ActBlue, races are redistributed and the Senate is grouped separately.

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