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The US needs China to support the denuclearization of North Korea – The Diplomat


Recently March 25 The North Korean ballistic missile tests underline the failure of Washington’s policymakers to effectively intervene with the People’s Democratic Republic of Korea (DPRK). While previous US administrations have repeatedly failed to denuclearize North Korea, the new Biden administration has been summed up to have a rare opportunity to formulate a new, effective policy to achieve regional peace. area and economic prosperity on the Korean peninsula without the nucleus.

To circumvent the string of historical policy shortcomings of the United States, Biden needs to mobilize Chinese cooperation to realize the irreversible and verifiable dismantling of North Korea’s nuclear program. While only using the power of economic sanctions and remains Kim Jong Un’s only socialist ally, only China can protect or coerce North Korea.

Biden had to propose a package deal that Kim couldn’t refuse: best chance of survival, giving up nuclear weapons to compensate for the real opportunity to modernize the economy and join the international community with status as a respected nation. In order to be encouraged to accept the deal, Kim must see the way it is nowchoose to survive with nuclear weaponsas unbearable cost.

However, the past decades have shown the futility of the US’s bilateral negotiations with North Korea. Such a deal would not be successful without Chinese cooperation.

Like the United States, China has a strategic interest in denuclearizing North Korea. Essentially, President Xi Jinping considers North Korea’s own nuclear weapons a threat to China’s security interests because of its ability to proliferate weapons and military equipment in East Asia, in particular. is in Japan and Korea. Second, 28,500 US troops and military equipment in South Korea, stationed as a means of preventing North Korean aggression, undermine China’s security interests.

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Moreover, Mr. Xi has a reserved attitude towards Kim’s credibility and his unsettling rhetoric. Over the past decade, Kim has pursued nuclear weapons despite strong warnings from Xi. North Korean propaganda describes China as abandoning “real” socialism to capitalism, and Beijing as a realistic nuclear target in case of extreme escalation.

However, China needs North Korea as an ally, as it has consistently served as a buffer against US influence in the region. Importantly, China only provides superficial support for denuclearization because it has calculated that North Korea would quickly collapse after the liberation of its nuclear weapons if it did not have a new strategy for survival. . Despite North Korea’s aggressiveness and unpredictability, the prospect of collapse will deeply destabilize the region.

To avoid the collapse, China has provided North Korea with essential aid, even in violation of these UN Security Council sanctions 2017, the target is oil import and export of minerals, seafood and textiles. The North Korean economy is still in a serious slump. Accounted for 4.6 billion dollars in the total trade of 5 billion dollars of North Korea in 2017China’s influence over the country’s economy is only just developing. The closure of the COVID-19 border proves further the effectiveness of economic sanctions, as China’s trade falls to low levels. $ 491 million, pushing the North Korean economy into an escalating crisis.

Biden could muster Xi’s steadfast backing for a lump-sum deal, giving North Korea a credible opportunity for economic survival and growth by adding in the most compelling promise – US withdraw troops out of Korea. A denuclearized North Korea will continue to serve as a geopolitical buffer for China against the US, South Korea, and Japan, and authorize military construction in the region. Not only will the Korean peninsula become completely non-nuclear, but North Korea will contribute to economic peace and prosperity.

Like me has been written, a package deal that buys and sells North Korea’s nuclear weapons and ruling ideology to ensure security, reform and openness of the market-oriented economy, an economic modernization plan, and International development funds are the only viable solution.

Turning North Korea into a peaceful and prosperous nation is the best outcome from each country’s security calculations, but it requires a steadfast commitment from each member. To be successful, Biden needed to develop a plan to not only create permanent peace and stability, but also economic prosperity. With such a plan, Xi can fully persuade Kim to accept such a change.

A key component of a workable package deal is reliable security guarantees. North Korea should sign peace treaties with South Korea and the United States, and reassert defense treaties with China and Russia. All economic sanctions must be lifted and the normalization of diplomatic relations is required, in order to conform to North Korea’s new amiable foreign policy.

But just having security isn’t enough. To survive, North Korea must undergo market-oriented economic reform and transformation into a vibrant, prosperous nation. The economic modernization plan includes infrastructure plans, institutional building, and human resource development.

An economic development fund must be large enough and last long enough, to lay the foundation for North Korea’s economic modernization. 300 billion dollars in 10 years to stimulate the average annual GDP growth rate of at least 10 percent. After that, North Korea had to stand on its own without continuing aid.

Diplomacy is not a zero-sum game. The lump-sum deal is a groundbreaking opportunity to jointly promote stability and humanity, but America’s efforts to contain China through the Quad alliance will undoubtedly hinder any joint initiative. Come on.

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The shared strategic goal of denuclearizing North Korea is a rare moment for the two rivals to come together on a joint effort to build a truly lasting peace. Successfully achieving a non-nuclear Korean peninsula with a package deal will not only significantly improve the lives of 25 million North Koreans, but will also serve as a test case for two superpowers to build one. a better world, a more peaceful world.

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