Despite Trump’s low number of approvals, the April / May polls show a closer run than the 2008 or 2012 Obama. This is yet another close presidential run, like it’s been happening since 2000. We live in an era of near elections and 2020 is not yet an exception. (Note that even Obama’s 53% -46% win rate in 2008 was pretty close by historical standards. You may have another idea of what “closed” means.)
A four-point swing – or a 2% change of mind by voters – would make Wisconsin, Michigan and Florida more likely to favor Trump and bring the regime’s results to near-perfect subversion. In the terminology of this site, the Presidential Meta Margin is currently Biden + 4%.
A six-point swing (3% of voters change their mind) will yield regime results for Trump 294, Biden 244.
Presidential polls, by state:
AZ: Biden + 9%
PA: Biden + 6%
FL: Biden + 4%
IM: Biden + 4%
WI: Biden + 3%
NC: Trump + 1%
OH: Trump + 3%
Senate. The same is true in Senate races. Thanks to natural opposition (two Dakotas, one California, the like) and today’s severe polarization, Republicans are able to maintain control of the Senate with less than 50% popular support. . Even so, Democrats have an attempt to regain control if they win some races.
They start from 46 seats (counting Sanders as Democrats, and assuming Doug Jones loses in Alabama). The Senate competitive basket, listed from Democratic lean to Republican, are:
Colorado – Arizona – North Carolina – Montana – Maine – Iowa – Georgia (Perdue).
If Democrats win four of these races, they get 50 seats, opening up the possibility of taking control of the council. With current polling data, they could win everyone, except for Georgia and Iowa, giving them 52 seats.
In 2020, we will focus on leveraging citizenship. Your contributions and efforts have the most influence on representation in case the race is on the verge of the knife – if it is within a few points in both directions. Hence, races entering the Senate from the middle of the list above are the best place to put resources in. In ActBlue on the right, I currently include Senate races in North Carolina, Montana, Maine and Iowa.
By contrast, Alabama and Kentucky are not very efficient places to put money. I know the Democrat on this site wants to dismiss Kentucky Sen. Mitch McConnell. It’s unlikely (at least until new data suggests otherwise), but one way that’s more likely to influence him than to strip him of his role as Majority Leader.
State races. Ultimately, I am most excited about our latest expansion effort: identifying leverage in state legislative races and voter initiatives. These are instances where your activism can guide policy and, in many cases, lead to bipartisan rule. in Kansas, for example, changing just one seat in the legislature would remove the majority and force the Republican-controlled legislature to work with the governor of the Democratic Party. Opportunities to overthrow partisan control can be found in Arizona, Florida, Minnesota, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Texas. These apply to both parties – Republicans certainly want to avoid the rule of a Democrat in Minnesota.
Several state legislatures have a say in redistricting. In those cases, a change of control in 2020 will be in effect for a decade. Those states are Florida, Kansas, North Carolina and Texas. (I left Minnesota for a reason, I’ll explain it another day.)
Again, you can contribute to all these efforts on this site, whether you are a Democrat (ActBlue) or a Republican (RSLC; see right sidebar).
We’ll be setting up a regular feed soon. Also, the website will be revised soon!