Home Elections Triage and refocus

Triage and refocus


A strange inversion seems to be working. As politics becomes more intense and extreme, public opinion becomes less volatility. According to public opinion, this trend has appeared since the mid-1990s, when Newt Gingrich took the lead in charge of controlling the National Assembly – a fateful turning point in national politics. Fewer voters have crossed over partisan lines than ever before. It is the hot death of modern politics.

This trend was evident in 2016, especially in the housing sector. trumpet stay afloat because of partisan polarization, and thus loyalty to him no matter what he did or said. As I wrote shortly after the election, the interstate voting error was the largest in the red states, suggesting that Republican voters were home in the final weeks of the campaign.

It looks like we’re going down that path again, at least in the Senate.

Until Labor Day or so, the Democrats seem to have taken control of the Senate. They start with 43 Democrats / Independence seats that either fail to vote or appear likely to win (counting West Virginia’s incumbent Joe Manchin as a Democrat that is likely to win based on poll data). Then the path is, starting with the Democrat’s biggest profit, NJ / MT / IN / FL / AZ / NV / MO. Those are 50 Democrats / Independence seats. Then they need to win in Texas, Tennessee or North Dakota.

The site eroded in September, and then fell off a cliff in early October when the Brett Kavanaugh Supreme Court confirmation battle raged. Considering the timing, the simplest explanation is that the Kavanaugh battle brought Republican voters home – just like they did in 2016.

Here are the average of the three most recent polls, compared to the end of September.

You can see sample here. All races are in Republican favor or unchanged, with larger changes in more Republican states. This shift is particularly evident in Texas, Tennessee and North Dakota – all strongly Republican states. It seems that McConnell and Trump have succeeded in activating their base.

In today’s snapshot, the 48 Democrats / Independence seats are the average result, with between 44 and 50 seats. It takes 2.0 points for Democrats to give an average result of 50 seats. And it will take them 6.5 points to get them to 51st. Right now, it looks like Republicans have a red wall.

What’s the bottom line for activists? Time to regroup. The company’s gross profit margin is D + 1.8%, which means Home control is working very effectively. It becomes a pretty good place to gather energy. (Find out what is Meta-Margin)

For activists on either side wanting to contribute money, I recommend focusing on the closest Senate races (NV / MO / FL / AZ / IN / MT) and those near Lower. institutes in those states. The House close race is NV-03, AZ-01, FL-15, FL-18, FL-26, and FL-27where polls are within five points. Help there will help that candidate – and also the guide in a tight Senate run. I’ve updated Donation link on the left, and Republicans can still award the NRSC.

You shouldn’t just give money. The elections in November have a huge impact on the future of our democracy. You can get votes from near you:

Turn your attention to Important voting questions at the state level. The state government is very important in conducting the next cycle of redistricting. Find a hotspot near you. Or read more in Taniel’s curated list out of hot questions.

Vote in a House of Representatives near you. Volunteer for a campaign listed in PEC’s 2018 The congressional regional search engine competition. Canvassing is hard work, but it’s satisfying.

Out of here. You have less than three weeks to make a difference!

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