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Two fers

Three weeks to go, fundraising is heating up. That is even true for state legislatures, which will shape the political playing field for 10 years through redistricting.

Today I’m going to give four examples of how a single donation can do two people’s work.

Here are the levels on which the PEC team had a quantitative analysis of the power of each voter, a measure of the effectiveness of voting or donations:

  • President. Some states may be of particular importance due to the possibility of externalities (a) disruption in the conduct of elections and (b) voting errors.
  • The Senate: maximize the number of seats. At this point, six races are in the 2 percent range or less. Democrats can end up in any position from 51 to 56 seats. This has important implications for law passage, legislative reform and judicial reform.
  • State Legislature: Redistricting for a decade. The six legislatures are under bipartisan control, and will therefore make a more equitable distinction. These people occupy an estimated 93 seats of the National Assembly, one fifth of the House of Representatives. Bipartisan control of the process will depend on profits with a total of at least 150,000 votes.

Because state legislatures are by far the highest leveraged investment you can make, we’ve analyzed this specifically, in a feature we call Moneyball redistribution. In this feature, we have calculated each voter’s maximum power based on political disadvantage and the mathematical model of the legislature’s control over redistribution.

Now I’m going to give you a list of goals for which your contributions will work at least two of these three levels. Because Democrats have more opportunities to bring about bipartisan redistribution. However, note that there is an opportunity, in Minnesota for the Republicans to force a bipartisan approach to redistribution.

In any case, you can donate in the ActBlue or WinRed link in the sidebar. Candidates and their competitors listed in the Redistricting Moneyball feature.

1) Minnesota. This attracts the attention of Republican readers, as well as anyone in favor of a bipartisan redistribution regardless of which side may benefit. In the event that the presidential race becomes competitive, then the Minnesota President’s power per voter will be high. In addition, Minnesota now has division control over the law and thus redistribution. To preserve that, Republicans cannot lose more than one seat in the state Senate.

Introduction: Minnesota Republican Party.

2) Kansas. The race to enter the US Senate is on a blade between Barbara Bollier (D) and Roger Marshall (R). In addition, the state legislature now commands supermajorities and can impose a one party commander. This is has been noted recently of Republican Senate Leader Susan Wagle, to common riot. Losing just one seat in the House of Representatives, however, would disrupt the majority, leading to two parliamentary seats.

The most popular areas for swingers are in Johnson County, near Kansas City. Out of that district, Block 98 near Wichita has the highest power per voter in Kansas. In 2018, challenger Steven Crum, an elementary school teacher, got 130 votes (out of 5,460) when he defeated incumbent Ron Howard (R). This year is a rematch.

I should note that local races are much cheaper than a Congressional campaign and can be run for as little as $ 30,000.

Introduction: Kansas County Democrat, and HD-98 candidate Steven Crum. Other individual candidates (and their competitors) are listed below Moneyball redistribution.

3) North Carolina. North Carolina is an important state for an orderly presidential election, for redistribution – and possibly for control of the Senate. It is one of two states likely to be called President on election night, and our calculations currently have 65 per voter power (maximum = 100).

Also, North Carolina is the site of some of the nation’s most extreme leaders – at least until the state Supreme Court gets in the way. To prevent a recurrence of the previous decade, change 5 seats in the House of Representatives or 4 seats in the state. The Senate will give part of the control of the legislature to Democrats. We see the House of Representatives as a slightly easier upgrade from the Senate based on county rankings and population per county.

Introduction: North Carolina Democratic Party – House of Representatives.
Individual candidates: Blocks 45 (Frances Jackson), 74 (Dan Besse), 83 (Gail Young), 82 (Aimy Steele), 59 (Nicole Quick). The District 11 Senate (Allen Wellon).

4) Alaska. Finally, we have a state where the vote has power over both the President and the Senate. About 300,000 votes will be cast. This is the only state where the power of each PEC voter is greater than 20 for both the President (about 30 today) and the Senate (100, topping the list).

Also, it’s likely that Alaska’s sole Congressional seat will change. This is in consequence because in the case of a presidential election going to the House of Representatives, each state gets one vote.

Note that another way of looking at the President + Senate’s two-way question is which race determines control of the Senate, ie the race of tipping points. In that case, outside of Alaska, people would add Georgia (namely Ossoff v. Perdue) and South Carolina.

Introduction: Independence / Democratic Party Al Gross v. Republican Dan Sullivan.



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