Home Economy Unexpected US growth could unbalance a fragile global economy: Economics

Unexpected US growth could unbalance a fragile global economy: Economics

This happened during the last financial crisis. The US prints a pile of money, exports inflation, and begins the Arab Spring as these countries try to vainly defend their currency pegs – either drain their budgets or let inflation explode.

2011: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2011/jun/29/how-world-paid-hiised-cost-america-quantuality-easing

In 2021: https://qz.com/1970022/fed-style-money-printing-is-fueling-inflation-in-poor-countries/

Edit: Loved that basic events were rejected for being too inconvenient. Here is a more complete explanation:

Inflation was one of the catalysts of the June 1989 Tianmen Square protests that ended in massacre. Conservative Chinese believe in the stable relationship between their currency and the dollar and the stable value for holding large chunks of US treasury debt, exactly as Europe has been. enjoyed in the early days of Bretton Woods. Now they have been betrayed – the Fed is forcing them. Faced with a choice between uncontrolled inflation with unpredictable consequences and a controlled renminbi revaluation, the Chinese have been steadily moving towards a reassessment beginning in June 2010. …

Bernanke says:

“Emerging market policymakers have a host of powerful tools they can use to manage their economies and prevent overheating, including regulation. The increased demand in emerging markets has contributed significantly to the recent sharp rise in global commodity prices. countries have contributed to an unbalanced and unsustainable global pattern of spending. “

This ignores the fact that many items that residents of those countries are buying, such as wheat, corn, oil, soybeans, lumber, coffee and sugar are priced on the global market. not the local market. As consumers in specific markets raise prices in response to the Fed’s money creation, prices rise not only in those local markets but around the world as well.

Soon after, the impact of the Fed’s money printing was felt not only in the relatively successful emerging markets of East Asia and Latin America, but also in poorer regions of Africa and the Middle East. When a factory worker lives on 12 thousand dollars a year, soaring food prices is an inconvenience. When a farmer lives on $ 3ka per year, the increase in food prices is the difference between eating and hunger, living and dying. Civil unrest, riots and uprising broke out in Tunisia in early 2011 and quickly spread to Egypt, Jordan, Yemen, Morocco, Libya, and beyond as a reaction to rising food and energy prices. and a lower standard of living than them. to totalitarian and undemocratic regimes. Countries in the Middle East have tightened their budgets to subsidize staples such as bread to mitigate the worst impact of inflation. This has turned inflation into a fiscal problem, especially in Egypt, where tax revenues were chaotic and tourism revenues dried up after the Arab spring.



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