US Homes 2020 – November forecast
July 19, 2020, 11:34 am by Sam Wang
Black trace shows daily snapshot using general congressional surveys. Data comes from FiveThirtyEight filtered using our own average rule. We have pre-created using special elections since 2018. We combine the two by assuming (a) random drift from the snapshot and (b) altering it with the photo. shooting before. The result is a “storm attack zone” with a red area (one-sigma, about 2/3 of the result) and a yellow area (two sigma, about 95% of the results).
Because this calculation doesn’t use specific district ratings, those ratings (for example, see Political Center) provides an almost independent approach (though of course prognosticators use national opinion as an input). In the case of Internal Meta Margin, the conversion factor is typically around 6 seats /%, i.e. D + 7% will map approximately to a 42-seat margin, or 239-197.