Was the Kavanaugh Senate’s return to a partial end?
October 24, 2018, 3:29 pm by Sam Wang
People often ask whether polls are moving opinions. Not many people pay direct attention to numbers. However, the polls have resonated with what journalists and experts write… with some delay. Combined with the time it takes to initiate and give a poll, this means that the articles can be an indicator of the latency of the play state.
Currently, political writers have documented a turnaround in Senate races against Democrats. This stems from a number of important races in the Republican states – Tennessee, Texas and North Dakota – heading towards the Republicans at the same time the hearing confirmed Kavanaugh had reached its peak. Few of them noticed that the view seemed to be reversing:
Recent polls currently show that the leaders in those states are Blackburn (R-TN) 3%, Cruz (R-TX) 8% and Cramer (R-ND) at 12%. Therefore, in the red states, the post-Kavanaugh sentiment is being partially preserved. It’s unlikely Democrats will win against any of them, even though I’m keeping an eye on Tennessee.
Those three races aside, Democrats have a narrow path to 50 seats – and divide control. This would involve winning out Arizona, Florida, Indiana, Missouri and Nevada, all within the two percentage point range. The persistent home voting error in the midterm election was as high as 4 percentage points, so it is possible. However, if the mistake goes the other way, Democrats could drop to 45 seats. The average result is currently 47-48 seats for Democrats and 52-53 seats for Republicans.
Why, in the face of high disagreement towards Trump and national sentiment in favor of Democrats (see House data), are Democrats still facing an uphill battle in the Senate? Most of you already know the reason: a lot of Trump-backed states are racing into the Senate this year. But this year’s results also set the stage for 2020, when the Democrats have a much more favorable playing field. Even if the Senate does not topple in 2019, then control in 2021 will have high consequences for whoever is the president – and for all of us.